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Upside Risks to Inflation and Outlook for a US Recession

Bloomberg Surveillance

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US Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy

This chapter delves into the outlook for real GDP, risks of a slowdown, and the potential for a recession, discussing the impact of higher rates on leveraged balance sheets. The conversation also covers the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts in 2024, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and the effects of rising interest rates on different demographics and companies. Furthermore, it explores the recent changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut forecasts, inflation expectations among various income groups, and the challenges facing the commercial real estate sector, particularly in office spaces.

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