TIVP026: The Intrinsic Value Portfolio: Mid-Year Review w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Exploring Airbnb's Growth Potential and Future Innovations
This chapter explores Airbnb's impressive growth trajectory since 2016, emphasizing its robust core business and the introduction of innovative features like local experiences. The discussion highlights a positive outlook for the platform as it continues to evolve and expand its offerings.
Daniel and Shawn step back for a mid-year review of the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, revisiting each holding to test the strength of their original theses and weigh what’s changed. From ride-hailing to beauty retail, this episode covers the full lineup: why Uber’s cross-sell flywheel and Waymo partnership reinforce its moat; how Alphabet’s latest earnings measure up against the growing threat of AI-native search; and why Reddit may succeed where Snapchat struggled, turning engagement into monetisation.
You’ll hear updates on Q1 earnings, commentary on management execution, and discussions on whether current valuations still offer upside or warrant trimming. They re-evaluate Airbnb’s evolving strategy as it expands into services and experiences, break down Ulta Beauty’s standout results, and revisit early convictions in new names like Nubank. They also debate the long-term outlook for consumer brands like Nike. Along the way, they reflect on where they’ve been right, where they’ve been early, and how to think about sizing, patience, and risk-reward in a concentrated portfolio.
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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro
03:14 - Why the Ulta Beauty position was being trimmed
17:47 - How Alphabet is holding up against AI competition
28:10 - Why Uber could benefit from autonomous vehicles
58:57 - How Airbnb overcomes regulatory hurdles and expands into experiences
1:06:17 - How Adobe used the AI revolution to strengthen its ecosystem
1:10:10 - Why Reddit might become more of a second Meta than a second Snapchat
1:20:46 - How Nike could overcome the recent headwinds
1:27:39 - Why initiating a position in Nubank is worth the risks
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
- Sign Up for The Intrinsic Value Community.
- Ulta Beauty: Check out the Podcast and Newsletter.
- Alphabet: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Airbnb: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Adobe: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Reddit: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Uber: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Nike: Check the Podcast & Newsletter.
- Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, and Madison Square Garden Sports.
- Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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