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Putin Can't Afford to Lose, but Wins Can Look in Different Ways
At this moment, the prediction is that winning looks like capturing not just the East, but the South Ukraine. But you could have narratives of winning that returned back to the beginning of this year before the invasion. The most probable outcome is that Ukraine remains, in air quotes, a sovereign nation. It's not going to be truly sovereign, because it'll have to have new government put in place.