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The Importance of Active Surveillance
Professor Mark Lipsich wrote an article for Stat News on the 18th of March. He said, quote, in populations with good ascertainment of symptomatic cases, the number of infections is perhaps double what is observed. In well-tested countries, we can be nearly certain that no population has reached anywhere near half of its people infected. That means that when each country lets up on control measures, transmission will increase and the number of cases will grow again. How should we think about the prospect of further waves of the disease after the initial lockdown period? This is an important point because after the lockdown time, you have to use a metric to leave this measure.