The Rewind: Uncertainty
The Memo by Howard Marks
The Importance of a Forecast
Investing seems to be based on forecasts that have a very low probability of being profitable. Extrapolations are usually correct, but everybody makes the extrapolation. Every once in a while somebody predicts something which is not an extrapollation. If you add it altogether, very few mackerel forecasts are profitable. And yet people keep making them because most people hate to say, i don't know.
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