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Surveillance: Fed Pause with Dudley

Bloomberg Surveillance

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Is the Fed Really Stressing the Longer?

I'm thinking the peak is probably in the five to five and a half percent range, just for the point you just made that the news will probably be stronger for longer. It'll make very hard for the Fed just to stop. If we're still at unemployment rate below 4%, and underlying inflation still running 4% or higher. I think that it will get a series of smaller rate hikes, but that will probably push us up above 5%. But clearly, the Fed's strategy here is they're stressing the longer rather than the ever higher.

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