Contractual vs empirical recurring revenue

Dave contrasts contractually recurring ARR with empirically reoccurring usage and the martini analogy.

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Episode notes

Mostly Growth’s conversation with legendary SaaS operator and blogger Dave Kellogg digs into the shifting economics of software, why traditional ARR metrics are breaking down, and what actually drives buyer interest in today’s M&A landscape. Dave, CJ, and Kyle unpack the growing divide between “recurring,” “re-occurring,” and empirically recurring revenue, calling out how misreported ARR (from multiplying single months by 12, counting trials as customers, or ignoring opt-outs) is warping valuations. They explore why many $20–50M horizontal SaaS companies have become “zombies,” why vertical software and AI tuck-ins are still getting bought, and how investor preferences and preference stacks create brutal misalignments between founders, employees, and late-stage capital. The episode then shifts to real-world pricing psychology—from Instacart and DoorDash memberships to credit-card fee complexity and resort-fee opacity—before finishing with tools they’re using (PowerPoint’s charting, Wispr Flow) and Dave’s hard-won rules for scheduling etiquette after intros.

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LINKS:

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Kellblog: https://kellblog.com/

Dave on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelloggdave/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

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