2min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#53 - Kelsey Piper on the room for important advocacy within journalism

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

The Importance of Predictions

Self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis off sale and 90% likely yeah I'm pretty pessimistic on this was one where I didn't do reference class forecasting. There can be a temptation to give people a hard time when their forecasts are wrong or they make bets about issues and then they're wrong but I think in a world where most people aren't doing that like making a bad forecast or losing a bet is actually way better than not having done it in the first place so I say even the losers are winners to me in this situation  and I do think we'll get better with timeYeah if the results come back in a year then I'm not very accurate then people

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