Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impacts

Monday 24th February 2025

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Friedrich Merz is likely to be the new Chancellor in Germany, but the exit polls show his CDU/CSU alliance will need to negotiate with other parties to form government and stave off the influence of the far right AfD. NAB’s Rodrigo says that could take some time. Meanwhile, a string of less optimistic data releases for the US. Friday’s Services PMI was a big downside surprise, falling into contractionary territory. The Michigan consumer sentiment survey also recorded a big fall, whilst there was a uptick in inflation expectations. And there’s a move down in US shares. Rodrigo wonders whether this could all encourage Present Trump to move faster on tariffs. 

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