The US Is Going to Default on Its Obligations

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I want to make sure in the system. The system is broken. We might as well burn it down now. It's just like larping. I'm starting to understand the picture here. You're thinking that people seem to be celebrating the idea of banks going insolvent or that the Fed, the US, would be unable to meet its obligations. Rather, the thing that you said over the last 100 years, real returns on Treasuries have been net positive. That won't be the case for the decades to come.

There are bank runs and also rumors of more bank runs on the horizon. One side says, “the banks are insolvent, get to the lifeboats.” Another side says, “the banks are going to be fine…we’re sick and tired of doomers pulling the fire alarm.” Who’s right?

This is our third episode in a series of conversations. To get the full debate you’ll need to listen to the last two episodes with Balaji Srinivasan and Arthur Hayes.

In this episode, we’re speaking with Ben Hunt who lays out the counterpoint details on why banks are going to be fine. He believes Balaji and Arthur are dangerously wrong. Tune in to hear why!

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------ Timestamps

0:00 Intro 6:55 Ben’s Crypto Credentials 10:36 Critiques of the Fed 16:55 Ben’s Understanding of Balaji’s Thesis 24:33 What Ben Believes is Untrue 33:42 Treasuries Are the Safest Assets? 43:34 Ben’s Objection 45:55 Icebergs 50:52 Fiat is Better? 57:45 Step Back for Society? 1:02:26 Checks on Power 1:07:39 Rules-Based Monetary Policy 1:12:30 How to Fix the Fed 1:15:35 Closing & Disclaimers

------ Resources:

Previous Debates https://www.bankless.com/balaji-bets-the-dollar-will-hyperinflate-to-zero-not-a-drill https://www.bankless.com/arthur-hayes-says-get-your-bitcoin-and-get-out

Ben Hunt https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

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