After 467 days of anguish, Israel and Hamas have reached a pivotal agreement to begin releasing hostages. AJC Jerusalem Director Lt. Col. (res.) Avital Leibovich breaks down the deal's details, the phased approach to releases, and the emotional toll on families and the nation. Hear about the complexities of the negotiations, the potential political fallout, and the profound resilience of those waiting for their loved ones to come home.

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Transcript of Conversation with Avital Leibovich:

Manya Brachear Pashman:

On Wednesday, the Israeli government and Hamas terror group, at long last, 467 days, to be exact, announced a deal to bring the hostages home. The deal, which will unfold in phases, calls for Hamas to ultimately release the 98 remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners convicted of terrorism and serving life sentences.

The first exchange could happen as early as Sunday. Here, on day 468, to explain the deal and the mood on the ground in Israel, where families wait to see whether the Israeli cabinet will sign the agreement, is AJC Jerusalem director Avital Leibovich.

Avital, thank you so much for joining us.

Wow. 468 days, and this seems like such a breakthrough, at least on this end. Can you walk us through the details of what has been agreed upon?

Avital Leibovich:

So currently, the Israeli delegation is still in Doha in Qatar, and have not returned to Israel. When they will turn to Israel, after the agreement will be finalized, then the Cabinet will meet, the government will gather, and they will approve the agreement. So according to the draft that has been leaked to the Palestinian media, the agreement has a few stages.

The first one has to do with releasing 33 hostages. That's the first stage. The 33 hostages, as we know, most of them, are alive, but unfortunately, there will be around 10 hostages that either have been murdered on October 7 by Hamas, and their bodies hijacked to Gaza, or those that have been murdered in captivity by Hamas.

Now we know that the first ones to be released, hopefully on Sunday, we are praying for that, are women, children, female soldiers, and also men over the age of 50 with some illnesses or some health issues or humanitarian condition. Which, I think everybody is in a humanitarian condition after such a long time. So that is the first stage.

The first stage will last 42 days. 42 days is a long time, and as we've seen and based on our past experience, Hamas can actually turn away, decide to change things last minute, halt the agreement and so on. In the course of those 42 days, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners. I have to say that the price is extremely high, because I'm talking about around 1000 Palestinian prisoners. When I look at the scale of how many prisoners will be released, versus a hostage, it's unbelievable. The price, quote, unquote, of an Israeli soldier, a female soldier, is very high compared to just an ordinary civilian.

So around 1000 prisoners will be released in this duration. In addition to this, the IDF will gradually leave some areas, and then on day 16, there will be discussions regarding the second phase. Israel would like to see, on the second phase, the remaining hostages released. That's 65 additional hostages.

And then we're talking about the third phase, which will be the reconstructing of Gaza. So these are the three phases. This is what we know for now. There are other components, like humanitarian aid, increasing significantly the number of trucks filled with aid going into Gaza, and we can talk about the implications of these prices, which Israel will be paying.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Now a lot of American media are reporting this as a cease fire. Is that accurate?

Avital Leibovich:

No, the Israeli policy is very clear. Only after the last hostage we leave Gaza, this means 98 hostages will be out of Gaza. Only then Israel will be willing to cease fire. That's the reason why it's called a hostage agreement, and not a ceasefire agreement. Now we know Hamas. Hamas is a vicious enemy. It's a cruel enemy.

You know, I just watched Palestinian media, and you'll be amazed to see how many civilians in Gaza, not Hamas related or Hamas oriented Palestinians, are saying that they wish that October 7 will return every year. They're supporting the repetition of October 7 year after year. And so, you know, this is the atmosphere that we are seeing.

And Hamas can be affected by this atmosphere, and this would maybe lead even to the possibility that there will never be a second phase to this agreement. So this is definitely something that Israel wants to be very, very cautious, and this is the reason why it's not called a ceasefire deal at this point of time.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

So you said 33 hostages, but 10, possibly who have died either in captivity or on October 7, those are the hostages that will be released in the first phase. Do we know who those hostages might be?

Avital Leibovich:

We don't know who. I mean, there are some kind of lists, so there are some indications, but it's based on rumors, and until the agreement is signed, the families themselves do not know. So you can imagine what's going on in the homes of 98 families of hostages, and of course, the second circles of these families, not sleeping, not eating, not breathing, just waiting for any kind of an announcement, the potential light in their lives. The tension is really unbearable.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

I cannot imagine. Can you also speak to the tension in the nation? What about those who don't have relatives in a hostage situation, but who are still part of this nation? Can you kind of talk about the emotion there.

Avital Leibovich:

Yeah, it's a great question. We know the hostages by name. We know what music they like. We know who the parents are. We know what their hobbies are. At this point of time, we all know the hostages, almost like it's another child of ours, or another aunt or another uncle or a grandfather or a son in law. This is how we feel. And if you were to visit now Israel, and you would take any road, you will most likely see yellow flags symbolizing the hostages alongside the road.

And if you'll enter a school, you'll probably hear in the yard the songs which the hostages love to play. And if you go to a supermarket and check yourself out at the self checkout counter, you want to swipe your credit card, you'll see a picture of a hostage. So the issue is surrounding us, 24/7.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Does the prospect of an agreement that would finally bring them home – has that generated a unified sense of hope or optimism there on the ground?

Avital Leibovich:

Even among the families, there are different opinions. So today, for example, families of hostages blocked the main road to Jerusalem and protested later near the prime minister's office because they think that the agreement is a bad one. And they have kids held in Gaza.

They think it's a bad one because they think that we may never reach the second phase, and their loved ones will stay forever in Gaza. And then there are other parts of the families who protest in Tel Aviv to make sure that the government signs this agreement.

And there is no right and wrong answer here. Families are torn. The country is torn. In order to patch the situation, we need the hostages back. There is no question about it.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

You raise a very good point. There is a divide, and it is a political divide, and so I am curious what your thoughts are on the prospect of the cabinet actually signing this agreement and going forward with this–and then also what the political implications are if the cabinet does or does not sign the agreement?

Avital Leibovich:

It is a political divide, but both sides are blaming the same person, the Prime Minister, doesn't matter from which side of the political map they are, they still see one person responsible to get them out of the situation.

Look, I do think that there will be a majority in the government. I do think that the Cabinet will vote for the agreement. I think that most of the ministers understand there is really no chance. And this is the turning point. This should be a turning point.

I can say that one of the ministers in the cabinet, Minister Zohar, which is the Minister of Culture, actually wrote a letter to all the other cabinet members and ask them to vote to support the agreement and release the hostages. So I do have reason to believe that it will be approved, by the way, according to the law in Israel, after it will be approved, both in the cabinet and in the government. Then the very long list of Palestinian terror prisoners will be published publicly.

Because, according to the law in Israel, anybody who wants to object –t can be my next door neighbor, it could be a family of a hostage. It could be an NGO. They could go and sue. They have 48 hours to go and file a lawsuit against the release of a specific or a few people on the prisoners list. So the High Court of Justice will discuss these appeals, and it will take 48 hours maximum. This brings us to Sunday as the closest possible point of the return of the hostages.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Could those names change on that list, and would that void the agreement?

Avital Leibovich:

So one of the arguments I understood that rose today in Doha in Qatar is exactly on that point Israel wants to veto the list, although it has agreed to release prisoners which are sentenced not to one life sentence, but even to two and three life sentences, so it is willing to pay the price, but it is not willing, for instance, to release those symbols of leadership of Palestinian prisoners, because there will be implications for that. And by the way, even to those who are only one sentence for only one life sentence, there's also implications. Because Hamas, from a military perspective, is in a very dire situation, and they need all the professional manpower they could get.

So this is a situation that we may see these prisoners return to the lines of Hamas tomorrow morning, right after they're being released. So it is, it is a heavy price. So I think that if this will come through, and I think it will come through, Israel will need to set up a whole list, a new kind of security measure, list that will be compatible with the new situation, the new challenge in Gaza, and take it from there. And of course, this cannot go back to what, where we were on October 6.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

And just going back to the political implications, you said, everyone, no matter what side they're on, they all point to Prime Minister Netanyahu as being responsible, good or bad. So what are the implications for him, for his future as the leader?

Avital Leibovich:

So you’re basically asking me about the chance of survival for the Netanyahu government. Currently, they have 68 seats, because, as you remember, Gideon Saar, who was in the opposition, alongside three other politicians, members of Knesset joined Netanyahu’s coalition, and now it's more stable.

The coalition needs 361 seats to survive, and the planned elections will be in 2026, so the question is, what will happen with Ben Gvir and Smotrich? One is holding six seats. The other one is holding seven seats.

What I'm hearing now about Smotrich, that he will agree to the first phase of the agreement, the hostage agreement, and then he wants some guarantees regarding the second stage, mainly with security issues, which is kind of ridiculous, because this person who does not have any background in military or security or things like that.

And then Ben Gvir is a bit more on the radical side, and he is actually in a political landslide with Netanyahu for the past couple of weeks. So the situation with him is just deteriorating. Having said all of that, you know, he fulfilled his dream to be a minister, and he would never have dreamt of it a few years ago.

And now that he's there, and now that we have President Trump going in in a few days, he may understand that the potential here for him is a lot bigger, and then he should take advantage of it, rather than just walk away. So I think that, if I would have to bet, I would say that this government will stay until 2026.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

I don't want to end with politics, so I want to go back to the personal side of this. You are there on the ground, as you said, you see the faces of the hostages when you check out at the supermarket.

You see these families pleading. You also are in a very key advocacy position there. Have you met with families recently? Have you spoken with anyone recently? And can you share that conversation?

Avital Leibovich:

Yeah, I've been in touch with a few of the huh, maybe 20 of the hostages families. And I'll share one story, which, of course, a lot of the stories are very emotional, and you get attached to them. But once in particular is a young mother. Her partner is in hostage in Gaza, and she gave birth to a beautiful girl when he's in Gaza. And she was here, as a matter of fact, on October 7, 2023 when she was sitting hiding in the shelter with her two other kids, she was eight months pregnant, and for her, it's about an everyday kind of survival, because on the one hand, she needs to be strong mother for three toddlers, but on the other hand, she's fighting constantly to bring her husband home, and so there's a conflict there, and I keep on asking her, how does she not break down?

And she is surrounded by families and so on, but at the end of the day, when she goes to sleep, she's alone, and if the baby cries in the middle of the night, then it's only her. And of course, there is work to be done and the kids to be taken and picked up and going to the doctors and, you know, whatever kids need. And three small kids, I mean, one is in first grade.

And again, the first grade, for example, she started school, and she was only escorted by her mother and and also, the kids are asking these naive questions, but they understand they know because they've seen many times their parents being kidnapped. So this is something they will carry on for the rest of their lives, and the fact that a baby has never met her father, that's really heartbreaking.

But I do want to say that I think they're finding inner strength, inner sources of strength for themselves, which is maybe a symbol of resilience of the Israeli people. This resilience, I think, is something very common in Israeli society. So this is a little bit of positivity in all the darkness.

Manya Brachear Pashman:

Absolutely well, I really do hope that her prayers are answered, that her partner returns home safely, as well as the other 97 hostages who are still in captivity. And those who do not return alive, may their memories be for a blessing. Avital, thank you so much.

Avital Leibovich:

Thank you.

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