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Nate Silver on the Supreme Court and the Underrated Stat for Finding Good Food (Live at Mason)
Conversations with Tyler
How to Beat Political Markets
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I think of you as a kind of super forecaster to use Philip Tatlock's term. Do you think you can beat prediction markets? Not all the time, but, you know, a smidgen above average. So if this were a game and we were all investors at the end of 30, 40 years, you'd have some excess returns. I think maybe by a very small amount, but not by enough to make up the variance,. It depends on what market you're talking about.
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