Today’s guest is Mikhail Samonov, CEO of Two Centuries Investments, which was established to create long term wealth for investors through its blend of innovative and behaviorally focused investment strategies.
In today’s episode, Mikhail walks through what led him to focus so much on ‘long history’ in his research. He shares lessons learned from studying two centuries of financial returns, including momentum and asset allocation. He also spends time explaining how he’s using AI to study intangible value and company cultures.
(1:29) - Welcome Mikhail to the show
(2:30) - Why such a focus on long-history?
(3:04) - Two Centuries of Price-Return Momentum; Two Centuries of Multi-Asset Momentum
(12:41) - Investors often underestimate risks, ignore history
(18:11) - Investment comfort zones vary by generation
(25:15) - Innovation and creativity are crucial for quantitative investors
(34:26) - Applying research on intangibles using NLP
(41:00) - CultureLine uses AI to analyze workplace culture, aiding investors and enhancing ESG models
(45:46) - Story about Steve Jobs adding "creative" to Apple's 10K
(49:46) - Deep dive into asset allocation strategies and their long-term resilience; A Century of Asset Allocation Crash Risk
(59:42) - Why investors underestimate drawdowns
(1:03:54) - What investment belief Mikhail holds that most of his professional peers do not
(1:07:09) - Mikhail’s most memorable investment
Learn more about Mikhail: Two Centuries; CultureLine; LinkedIn; Twitter
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Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.
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