#199: The Fed vs the Markets
Talking Data
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Is There a Recession?
The two year note has not seen its peak for this cycle unless the Fed finds a reason in the next three weeks to stop raising rates. So we're probably looking at higher short rates. The yield curve started off in 2020 at nearly 300 basis points and now it's at minus, minus 75, minus 80. If I'm wrong and the economy does weaken, I think what you could see is short rates plummet. And if we go to the final chart, what does it mean for stocks? So short rates up, long rates parallel shifting higher with them, yield curve possibly steepening higher interest rates.
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