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Bullishness Approaching Mania | Peter Atwater on Market Psychology And “The Confidence Map”

Forward Guidance

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The Fear of a Recession

Bloomberg had a recession odds probability calculated. And it was at 99% that we would have a recession in the US. Obviously, the US economy has proven much more resilient. I'm a big believer that the best indicator of a recession ahead is the fearlessness with which we approach a recession. We're doing things with feelings of invincibility, where we're not paying a lot of attention and so that's what sets up the recession. It actually can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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