Navigating Investment Expectations

This chapter explores the 'expectations infrastructure' in investment scenario analysis, highlighting the importance of industry dynamics and historical metrics for predicting growth. It also examines Bitcoin's role in finance, introducing a Bitcoin Calculator for scenario visualization, and discusses reflexivity in investing with Tesla as a case study.

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Trey Lockerbie chats with a very special guest and that is investing legend Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. He is also the author of three books as well as an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, where he’s been teaching the Security Analysis course for 30 years.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:

01:52 - Michael's early career working under the tutelage of Bill Miller.
06:08 - His introduction to the Santa Fe Institute and how it shaped his investing style.
15:49 - The 3 steps of what Michael calls Expectations Investing.
19:37 - The concept of reflexivity.
25:26 - The problem with investing is based simply on multiples.
30:35 - The rise of intangibles, what are they, and how to look through them.
39:40 - The golden rule of share buybacks and why they are controversial to some.
55:00 - How to calculate a company's competitive moat.
58:09 - How Michael has updated the Security Analysis course at Columbia.
1:04:33 - How to determine your own cost of capital.
And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, and the other community members.
Michael Mauboussin's website.
Michael Mauboussin's Twitter.
Measuring the Moat paper.
Expectations Investing book.
Increasing Returns by Brian Arthur book.
Scale by Geoffrey West book.
Understanding Michael Porter by Joan Magretta book.
Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein book.
Valuation by McKinsey book.
A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel book.
Trey Lockerbie Twitter.

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