People rarely take the outside view when they do forecasting. But it's a big advantage to you as a forecaster from starting with the outside view and working in. Cating how the news gradually builds up toward one conclusion or another is a very valuable skill. I'm wondering if one reason many of us start with the inside view rather than the outside view, is because that's how our minds think.
When disaster strikes — from the explosion of a space shuttle to the spread of a deadly virus — we want to know whether we could have avoided catastrophe. Did anyone speak up with concerns about the situation? And if so, why didn’t someone listen? This week, we revisit a favorite episode about the psychology of warnings, and how we can all become better at predicting the future.
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