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You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
Hidden Brain
Forecasting - The Outside View
People rarely take the outside view when they do forecasting. But it's a big advantage to you as a forecaster from starting with the outside view and working in. Cating how the news gradually builds up toward one conclusion or another is a very valuable skill. I'm wondering if one reason many of us start with the inside view rather than the outside view, is because that's how our minds think.
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