Risk of another shutdown and healthcare politics

Chuck Todd examines the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files, the uneven political fallout, and why some stories break through while others—often more consequential—don’t. The discussion then turns to public health, RFK Jr.’s corrosive influence on vaccine trust, and how misinformation is putting kids at risk just as measles cases surge. Todd closes by unpacking the growing civil war within MAGA world, where influencers—not elected officials—are driving the GOP agenda, competing for clicks with ever more extreme claims, and exposing deep cracks in Trump’s coalition.

Then, chief Washington correspondent for Puck News, Leigh Ann Caldwell joins Chuck to unpack how Washington looks different when covered from outside the constraints of legacy media—and why independent journalism may be better suited to capture the dysfunction of Trump’s second term. Caldwell reflects on the groupthink and reaction-driven coverage that defined Trump’s first presidency, the erosion of Congress’s authority in Trump 2.0, and the deep personal animus now defining relationships on Capitol Hill. Together, she and Chuck examine how social media has shaped a younger generation of staffers, why Speaker Mike Johnson may be remembered as one of the weakest in history, and how Congress has willingly made itself irrelevant in the face of executive power.

The conversation also digs into healthcare politics, looming shutdown risks, and why Republicans remain unable to act without Trump’s approval—even as he digs in against ACA subsidies out of lingering grievance toward Obama. Caldwell and Todd explore the brewing chaos inside the GOP, from mass retirements and redistricting fights to the staggering cost of House races and the nonstop fundraising grind. The episode closes with a candid assessment of party leadership heading into 2026, why a third Trump impeachment would be a mistake, and why covering Congress—rather than the White House—may now offer the clearest window into where American politics is headed.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to review the fallout from the dissolution of the Soviet Union and why that story’s ending hasn’t been written yet. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and gives his college football roundup.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:45 We all know the broad strokes of the Epstein story

05:30 With enough money you can buy your way out of bad character

07:00 Justice department is slow walking the release of the Epstein files

07:30 Releases have a lot of Bill Clinton, very little Trump

08:15 DOJ will frontload releases that embarrass Democrats

09:30 People were willing to look the other way on Epstein

10:15 Character should matter & Epstein ties should be a demerit

12:00 Many people don’t know about or believe many of Trump’s outrages

12:45 The Epstein story breaks through, many consequential stories don’t

14:00 HHS touts accomplishments, but has done tremendous damage 

15:15 2000 confirmed cases of measles, about to lose measles-free status

16:45 RFK Jr. is an incredibly low character individual

17:30 Removing food dyes is the only good work MAHA is doing

19:00 No scientific study links vaccines to autism 

19:45 Covid vaccine was touted as a shield

20:45 People exploited poor Covid vaccine communication

21:15 MRNA vaccines are a technological marvel

21:45 Cutting funding for MRNA research is a terrible own goal

23:00 RFK Jr is causing less people to take vaccines, putting kids at risk

24:15 Massive infighting has begun amongst the MAGA influencers

25:45 GOP is captured by influencers the ways Dems were captured by “groups”

27:45 Some MAGA influencers have crazy beliefs and conspiracy theories

28:45 Republicans forced to entertain the crazy beliefs of their influencers

30:45 GOP politicians are taking their cues from their influencer base

31:45 Dems are starting to break free from influence of the groups

32:30 Biden’s poor handling of the border was to satiate the groups

33:00 MAGA influencers are conducting a circular firing squad

34:00 MAGA influencers try to out-crazy each other for clicks

36:30 The MAGA coalition is cracking 

42:30 Leigh Ann Caldwell joins the Chuck ToddCast

44:00 Covering politics as independent media vs legacy media

47:15 There was little ability for original thought doing network news

48:15 Legacy media gets stuck in groupthink

50:00 People blame the Gingrich years for our current political dysfunction

51:30 Covering Trump’s 1st term was asking for reactions to Trump

52:00 Congress has handed away their authority in Trump 2.0

52:45 The personal animus between the two parties is very real

54:00 Young staffers had their politics formed by social media

56:00 Mike Johnson will go down as one of the weakest speakers ever

57:00 Johnson has willingly made congress irrelevant

58:45 Are we underplaying the chances of a January shutdown?

1:00:00 With premiums set to rise, why couldn’t Dems corner the GOP?

1:00:45 Dems know healthcare is good politics for them

1:01:45 Trump is digging in rather than caving on ACA subsidies

1:03:30 Trump doesn’t want to prop up the ACA because Obama passed it

1:04:30 Lots of Republicans have “Obama Derangement Syndrome”

1:06:00 The framework of the ACA came from the Heritage Foundation

1:06:30 Trump comes close to advocating for single payer healthcare

1:08:45 Republicans can’t do anything on healthcare without Trump

1:09:45 Trump is done with congress, thinks he can do everything via EO

1:11:45 Trump lied and claimed military bonuses came from tariff revenue

1:12:45 If SCOTUS takes tariff power from Trump, will he go to congress?

1:13:45 Congress unlikely to hand tariff authority to Trump

1:14:45 Republican bracing for another 20 retirement announcements

1:16:15 Texas & California members are mad about redistricting

1:18:00 House races will likely cost $60 million in 2026

1:19:30 Members of congress spend 50% of their time fundraising

1:22:00 Democrats would be stupid to try to impeach Trump a third time

1:23:30 Which congressional leaders will still be in place in 2027?

1:25:00 Johnson won’t be speaker in a new congress

1:26:00 Jim Jordan is the quiet favorite to be the house GOP leader

1:27:30 It’d be shocking if Chuck Schumer ran again

1:29:00 DSCC botched their oppo release on Graham Platner

1:31:15 There are doubts about Jeffries, but unlikely to be challenged

1:33:00 Schumer & Jeffries botched the NYC mayors race

1:34:45 Does John Thune have support in the senate?

1:37:30 Covering the hill is a better beat than the White House

1:42:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Leigh Ann Caldwell

1:42:30 ToddCast Time Machine - December 26, 1991

1:43:00 Soviet Union officially dissolves, ending the Cold War

1:43:45 Collapse of the Soviet Union is still unresolved

1:45:00 It felt like history had chosen a winner, but it was just the first act

1:45:30 The west felt like the liberal democrats had won

1:46:45 The US treated the Soviet Union like a failed state, not a fallen empire

1:48:00 Democracy hasn’t taken hold in many former Soviet states

1:49:15 Democracy has never landed in Russia due to structural reasons

1:50:15 Fall of the USSR created oligarchs, but not a middle class

1:51:15 The Russian people equated oligarchy with democracy

1:53:00 Russians lost a sense of identity, made them vulnerable to a dictator

1:53:45 Eastern Europe fears Russia & wanted in on NATO

1:55:15 Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, gave it up

1:56:15 Ukraine should have received NATO membership for giving up nukes

1:57:00 We’re repeating the 1920’s & 30’s in the U.S. & in Europe

1:58:45 Russia becoming a democracy seems fanciful, but in time it’s possible

2:00:15 This period feels unstable, but could be bumps in the road

2:00:45 Ask Chuck

2:01:00 Why has the U.S. and Europe had a bond, & thoughts on losing it?

2:05:30 Do you think congress will try to limit the pardon power post-Trump?

2:11:30 What does the GOP look like if it loses in 2028?

2:15:00 What was it like working with Topps for your trading card?

2:26:00 College football roundup

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