The Illusion of the Hot Hand

This chapter explores the concepts of heuristics and biases in sports, focusing on the 'hot hand' phenomenon in basketball and its misinterpretation in performance evaluation. The speakers share personal anecdotes and analyze how small sample sizes can distort perceptions of player abilities, contrasting basketball's confidence-driven dynamics with the more statistical approach of baseball. Additionally, they examine hindsight bias and overconfidence, emphasizing the importance of understanding cognitive processes for better decision-making.