Incorporating Probabilistic Thinking into Valuation Frameworks

Our guest this week, on the Value Perspective is Adam Rozecwajg, a deep value investor with a specialised focus on the materials and commodities industry. Together with his partner, Adam co-founded Goehring and Rozencwajg, a firm dedicated exclusively to investing in natural resources. Commodities are perhaps the best example of the capital cycle theory, and Goehring and Rozencwajg’s investment process reflects this perfectly. They are a fundamental research firm focused exclusively on contrarian natural resource investments. Their team has over 49 years of combined experience and produces top quality differentiated research, analysing both commodities at a macro level and individual securities. Returning guest Django Davidson from Hosking Partners joins us to the co-host the episode, in which we discuss: Goehring and Rozencwajg’s deep value approach to materials and commodities; investing through the lens of real option value; how Goehring and Rozencwajg incorporates probabilistic thinking into their Bayesian framework; the role of promotional demand dialogues; and the importance of commodities in the era of the EV. Enjoy!

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