Analyzing Factors Affecting Political Popularity

This week, Matt and Brian take a granular look at the latest New York Times/Siena data, which finds Joe Biden losing most swing states, and well behind in the sunbelt states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which he won in 2020. They discuss whether:

* Biden’s post-State of the Union poll bounce was illusory, or a hint at what might help him turn the election around;

* Post-inflation grumpiness is hamstringing Biden, just like other world leaders, or if something unique to Biden (his age, the U.S. information environment) explains his peculiar unpopularity;

* The issues voters say they’re fixed on (inflation, immigration, and crime) are creating genuine problems in their lives, or are merely evidence of successful, unopposed, Republican propaganda.

Then, behind the paywall, Brian and Matt interpret the poll data per se: What’s the optimistic read of the numbers? What’s the pessimistic read? Is it time to revive the debate over whether Biden should yield to a younger candidate with less baggage? Or does he still have time to prove the doubters and haters wrong? Answers to all those questions, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.

Further reading:

* Brian on Democrats’ mysterious aversion to setting the national discourse agenda, and how it hurts them badly.

* Learning From Loss by Seth Masket.

* Matt on the misinformation that truly matters.