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Mike Green: The Fed's Already Breaking Markets

The Macro Trading Floor

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Is There a Neutral Rate?

There is no one neutral rate, right? And this is part of the challenge that i have with this whole formula. In a formulation, its if i think about that neutral rate as something like a normal distribution around what the fed would cause a normal rate. The observed level that we we see that in an empirical framework, isn't actually going to be that centre. It's going to be the point of maximum pain that we can bear as you start to move up that curve of defaults. When we lower introstrates, those who are most vulnerable will take advantage of that and reset the ra rate lower. Until you enter into an environment in which there's such tremendous surplus, or such

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