Is Caterpillar in a Recession?

If I told you that a recession was a high probability in the next 12 months, would you buy an industrial stock today? No. First of all, a recession is guaranteed overseas and Caterpillar is doing business internationally. It might not affect Caterpillar the way previous traditional recessions have. And actually, it may play to Caterpillar strengths. But again, you've still got this declining trend which could take a little bit of time to work itself out.