Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are running positively, but without the guardrails of American economic data, while the US Federal shutdown extends. In their absence, consumer and tech speculations are generating considerable froth.

But first in China, their Mid-Autumn festival holiday spending should tell us a lot about their economic activity, and the initial signs are promising for them; unprecedented travel levels, active holiday destinations. But we will have to wait for the overall outcomes. The final day of this holiday period is tomorrow.

In Japan, their stock market took off in a wave of euphoria following the vote to make Sanae Takaichi the leader of the LDP and PM in waiting. But the yen fell, probably a boon for Japanese exporters.

In Europe, August retail sales volumes were mixed. They were up only +1.0% from the same month a year ago, the least in more than a year. But the change from July were slightly more encouraging driven by food purchases, especially in France and Spain. Germany and Italy were laggards however. Easing fuel consumption was part of the reason for the retail growth restraint which they will take as a 'good thing'.

In France, a newly appointed Prime Minister resigned when his new cabinet could not survive its first parliamentary vote.

In Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a +0.4% increase in monthly inflation for September from August, primarily influenced by higher recreation and transport related prices. The monthly cost of living also rose. Annual headline inflation now lies at the top-end of the 2-3% target band at just on +3.0%. This is the same as the last ABS Inflation Indicator for August. At this rate, it seems unlikely that the RBA will be looking at any rate cut at their November 4, 2025 review. But not everyone links like that. The central bank is still expected to slash the cash rate despite these sticky prices, according to the latest quarterly survey of economists by The Australian Financial Review.

In the US, no progress at all on their Federal government shutdown. And to distract attention, as autocrats always do, Trump is moving to impose National Guard military presence in major cities, even when the evidence is clear there are no crime waves, as he claims. But the distraction is the point.

And we should note that aluminium prices are rising significantly again, up at US$2720/tonne. They are now near their highest ever, (apart from the unusual 2021-22 bubble in the pandemic recovery). Tin, Zinc and even copper are also on the rise. The main metal price not changing much is nickel. Iron ore is also flat-lining, as it has done since early 2024. But precious metals, the ones much more subject to consumer speculation, are surging. The most spectacular is platinum which is up +60% since May. (In the same time, gold has risen +22% and silver +47%).

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16% and up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.

The price of gold will start today at US$3952/oz, up +US$67 from yesterday and a new high and powering toward US$4000. Silver is up too, but less, now at US$48.50/oz.

American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$65.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.4 USc, up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we soft -10 bps at 88.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 65.7, up +10 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$125,294 and up +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.1%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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