23min chapter

The Julia La Roche Show cover image

#137 Professor Campbell Harvey, The Inventor Of The Most Famous Recession Indicator — The Inverted Yield Curve — Sees Economic Slowdown In 2024

The Julia La Roche Show

CHAPTER

Using the Bond Market to Predict Economic Growth

The speaker explores the search for a simple and accurate indicator of future economic growth, starting with experiments using stock prices but ultimately turning to the bond market. They discuss the advantages of the bond market and the predictive power of the spread between long-term and short-term rates. The chapter ends with an unexpected termination right before presenting their research.

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