The Future of LLMs: Data Stores and Switching Costs

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the challenge of forecasting the AI Supercycle, Stargate and the massive AI supercomputer build out,  AI demand overhyped or underhyped, and current market valuations. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.

Timestamps:

(0:00) Intro

(2:49) Demand for Compute Is Virtually Unlimited

(27:53) Everywhere we Look we are building more and bigger Supercomputers 

(35:49) The AI Induced Power Gap & The Need for Nuclear

(50:21) Valuations / Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap  

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley 

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod

Shownotes:

What's next for AI agents ft. LangChain's Harrison Chase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBBe1pk8hf4

Tesla FSD Model 12: https://twitter.com/bg2pod/status/1769378291658666226?s=46&t=tiuRwY6s_lj81akJSCmJkw Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419: Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419

OpenAI CEO on GPT-4 vs GPT-5 | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJEC0aAjRJE 

Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox 

MSFT and OpenAI $100bn supercomputer project: https://twitter.com/theinformation/status/1773798028907811059?s=20

Biden administration on how to generate more electricity to meet massive demand for AI computing: https://twitter.com/axios/status/1774758834952659223?s=20 

Nuclear reactors planned and proposed: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx 

U.S. approves $1.5bn loan to restart Michigan nuclear plant: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/energy-environment/holtec-palisades-nuclear-plant-loan.html 

Josh Wolfe’s talk to Congress: https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1685323817521139712 

Our World in Data - cleanest and safest sources of energy: https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy 

How Regulation killed Supersonic: https://www.heritage.org/transportation/commentary/its-time-let-supersonic-flight-soar-again

Natural gas is stronger in the U.S.: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/natural-gas-is-now-stronger-than-ever-in-the-united-states-power-sector 

Baseload in the U.S. has been flat for many years: https://energytransition.nema.org/baseload-generation/ 

Amazon goes nuclear: https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/04/amazon_acquires_cumulus_nuclear_datacenter/ 

I-95 Bridge reopened in 12 days: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrection-of-i-95-in-just-two-weeks-is-dubbed-small-miracle?embedded-checkout=true 

SF cleaned up in a week: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sanfran-s-mean-streets-become-clean-streets-for-biden-xi-and-co-20231116-p5ekd0.html 

Texas trumps California as key US energy transition driver:https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/texas-trumps-california-key-us-energy-transition-driver-2023-05-04/ 

Brad’s tweet on CT scan: https://twitter.com/altcap/status/1774919531414368402?s=20

Americans favor more nuclear energy: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/18/growing-share-of-americans-favor-more-nuclear-power/ 

Producing new nuclear plants have gone down in France and up in the U.S. tweet: https://twitter.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1773221106591166946?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg 

GenAI company revenue multiples tweet: https://twitter.com/asanwal/status/1772821841578754492?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg 

Gurley’s tweet on 60x reduction from top model: https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1774896120310686003?s=20 

Congress provides record funding for fusion energy:https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/congress-provides-record-funding-for-fusion-energy/ 

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod