The Philosophical Divide: Intuition vs. Evidence in Medicine

You demanded, we complied. Last month in this space, I interviewed science/technology/Covid journalist David Zweig about his great new book, An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions. It was a bracing conversation, filled with damning media/elite criticism, blue-state horrors, and F-bombs galore.

Then a funny thing happened: Dozens of you wonderful paying subscribers said Mr. Welch, tear down this paywall, so we can share this with our normie friends! And so I have.

A good time to mash the subscribe button!

Now it’s your turn, o demanding listeners (and even non-demanding freeloaders) – let’s hook some new normies into your favorite podcast, and maybe persuade some of you fence-sitters about the primo content you’ve been missing out on. As Pope Bob from Chicago has taught us, the more people subscribe, the more special treats for everybody. Amen.

Without further ado, the original text for the episode.

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On May 11, 2020, as I was navigating personal collapse (“it’s been a really shitty two months,” I said on an interesting-to-listen-to-now Special Dispatch #20), my two daughters were wrestling unhappily with Zoom school, and all three of us lads were in the process of buying Covid cars, I came across a Wired article that landed like a Cher-style open-handed slap across the face: “The Case for Reopening Schools: Lots of other countries have decided that it's time to take this step. Why is the US holding back?”

The piece, by David Zweig, was very contrary to the U.S. news coverage at the time, chock full o’ studies and data points and hyperlinks, and opened like this:

Schools are reopening in countries around the world in response to a substantial body of evidence that children are largely unaffected by Covid-19 and minimally contagious when they get infected. Experts and policymakers abroad also acknowledge that school closures perpetuate a long list of known harms to children.

Yet, oddly, the US is following a divergent path.

Along with other real-world evidence trickling in from around the globe, Zweig’s essay (plus a June 24 follow-up), was part of my four-month journey from close-the-schools alarmist to open-the-schools monster, the latter condition from which I would spend more of my journalistic energy over the ensuing few years than I care to remember.

Zweig, also a New York City parent of two schoolkids at the outbreak of Covid, is determined never to forget. His book An Abundance of Caution: American Schools, the Virus, and a Story of Bad Decisions, is more than mere rage-calorie score-settling, however. At heart, he tells me in this occasionally fiery conversation, it’s about how we make decisions under crisis, and how our country operates under duress.

What he both discovers and explicates, in fascinating detours through Evidence-Based Medicine and the philosophy of science, is that two institutions in particular let us down: Public health elites, and the media. “This is an extraordinarily compelling story about evidence being ignored and dismissed,” he says. “They ignored empirical evidence that was right in front of their fucking face.”

Trust me, you’ll want to get to the last 15 minutes here, where Zweig describes how this process transformed his politics. It was “this revelatory moment,” he says: “Oh my God, I was a complete arrogant asshole.” Few others are spared.

Some links:

* Excerpt in The Atlantic, “The Disaster of School Closures Should Have Been Foreseen”

* Excerpt in The Free Press, “How Covid Lies Destroyed Kids’ Lives”

* Zweig’s Substack, Silent Lunch

* NPR, “What Parents Can Learn From Child Care Centers That Stayed Open During Lockdowns,” June 24, 2020

* The New York Times, “How 132 Epidemiologists Are Deciding When to Send Their Children to School,” June 12, 2020

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