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The Halo Effect: The Rise and Fall of CEOs
In a well-ordered and predictable world, the correlation would be perfect. The stronger CEO would be found to lead the more successful firm in 100% of the per-year. If the relative success of similar firms was determined entirely by factors that the CEO does not control, call them luck if you wish. It is difficult to imagine people lining up at airport bookstores to buy books about business leaders who do somewhat better than chance.