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TIP447: How to Build a Human Bias Defense System w/ Gary Mishuris
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Recency Bias - Base Rate Neglect Effect
Recency bias is when you're essentially taking events from the past and extrapolating them into the future. You takeo nyor term past and assume that con be the same in the long turm future. So i think of recency bias is almost a special case of base rate neglect. In each case, your ignoring the base rate. The history of companies growing 30 % for two years is mean reversion in the growth rate towards the growth rate in all companies just to level set everything.
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