The Importance of Extreme Probabilities in Economic Data

Even though it isn't obvious right now that the U.S. is in recession or even maybe heading to recession, he says. That's not a typical either; you see lots of business cycles where the economy sort of just hangs in the air for a little while and then falls off a cliff. And what really tells me that's going to happen is all of these financial markets that continuously price some of the most extreme probabilities.