The Role of the Fed in Makro Forecasting

Hundreds of people make their living as professional market forecasters. The medium forecast is of no value, wrong on average and positive in good years and bad. Forecasts weigh off target when an accurate forecast would have been most profitable. A great deal of the current debate over the makro outlook surrounds the fed and its policies and behavior. In march 20 twenti, the fed triggered the recovery were enjoying by cutting the key federal funds rate to zero to zero point two five %. This combination was very successful, producing powerful recoveries in the economy and the ancial markets. However, same actions help create the threat of persistently higher inflation....