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#60 – Jaime Sevilla on Trends in Machine Learning

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Is There a Timeline for Transformative Artificial Intelligence?

I don't know if you have numbers that you can share about what kind of your own time is that like early time you think about these things, give what we talked about. Yeah, excellent question. So to inform my thinking about timelines, this at this point, I'm quite anchored on like previous work that has happened. There have been some quantitative models to try to understand the amount of compute that will be needed in order to achieve transformative AI. And then how fast is our stock of compute growing and not only the stock of compute, but also how are like computer requirements decreasing over time as we thought in the algorithmic improvement section.

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