John Ioannidis on Statistical Significance, Economics, and Replication
EconTalk
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Is There a Need for Randomized Trials?
We need to find designs that minimize the error. Our best chances in these cases, if we still believe that it's important to know, they would be randomized trials. Even those may not be able to get us an entirely definitive answer. But at least we know that we're not starting completely off base.
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