Is There a Base Rate Probability?

The concept of probability seems intuitive enough, we seldom think about what exactly it means. When i flip a coin, my hunch about which way to land feels about half way between zero and one. If you repeat an event a thousand times, how many of those episodes will come out one way or another? Generally, these probabilities coincide. But when it ends up with the smaller probability seeming to win, i think that's counter intuitive to sern how people think about statistics and reasoning.

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