Which Private Credit Managers Are Signaling Trouble?

The stock market bubble is going to pop! And we're going to tell you when. In today's episode we discuss that price is the ultimate indicator of market truth. Charts, narratives, and data often distort reality, while price alone reflects what investors truly believe. Don't overcomplicate investing with speculative indicators, fear-based "chart crimes," and emotional herd behavior, especially in areas like AI stocks that echo the dot-com bubble. Fundamentals and narratives often mislead, while disciplined attention to price direction and risk management yields better results.

We discuss...

• Price is the purest and most reliable truth in markets, capturing the collective judgment of all participants and filtering out misleading narratives.
• Investors often get trapped by "chart crimes," forcing technical patterns or trends that confirm what they want to see rather than what the market is actually showing.
• Investors often believe that deeper analysis means better insight, but in truth, simplicity and clarity around price direction outperform complex models.
• There are strong parallels between the current AI investment boom and the late-1990s dot-com bubble.
• Euphoric narratives around transformative technologies tend to overinflate valuations before reality catches up.
• AI enthusiasm is driving herd behavior, where investors fear missing out on perceived "once-in-a-lifetime" gains, leading to speculative excess and distorted valuations.
• Most investors misjudge risk, confusing volatility with opportunity, and failing to respect the message that price declines are often early warnings of deeper structural problems.
• There are under-appreciated risks building in private markets, especially private credit and private equity, which have grown rapidly outside the scope of traditional regulation.
• Private credit lacks transparency, liquidity, and oversight, creating potential systemic vulnerabilities if credit conditions tighten or defaults rise.
• In contrast, regulated banks, though unpopular, are more transparent and stress-tested, making them safer in relative terms despite their public scrutiny.
• Investors chasing yield in private markets are ignoring the lessons of past crises, mistaking the illusion of stability for real safety.
• Liquidity is an often-overlooked advantage, allowing investors to act decisively when market conditions change instead of being trapped in illiquid positions.
• Stay grounded in simplicity, price truth, and discipline, avoid the noise of narratives, the allure of complexity, and the comfort of consensus thinking.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-bubble-761