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Wall Street’s bets that the US-China trade truce marked the end to an all-out tariff war drove the S&P 500 up over 3%, while sinking defensive corners of the market from bonds to gold and haven currencies. The dollar saw its best day since November.
The rebound in risk appetite and diminished expectations of a recession drove the stock benchmark above Donald Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” level.
A surge in big techs drove the Nasdaq 100 back into a bull market just a month after it plunged 20% from a previous record. Amid a potential reset in inflation expectations, Treasury yields climbed as traders lowered their Federal Reserve wagers to just two rate cuts in 2025.
For big investors shocked into defensive measures at the height of April’s chaos, the swift recovery in markets has been a mixed blessing. Shorting the dollar, going long stock volatility and piling on bets premised on multiple Fed rate cuts were among the most popular trades in mid-April. Each has taken severe lumps. Indeed, their unwinding may be adding fuel to the bounce-back.
The US and China will temporarily lower tariffs on each other’s products, buying the world’s two largest economies three months to work toward a broader agreement. Trump said China had agreed to remove non-tariff barriers to US imports as he announced a de-escalation of his trade war with Beijing, suggesting even greater concessions could be in store if talks progress.
Today's show features:
- Nancy Lazar, Chief Economist at Piper Sandler
- Doug Ciocca, CEO and Partner at Kavar Capital Partners
- Jay Inslee, former Governor of Washington
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