Modeling Trade War Scenarios

2025 has been a landmark year for the global energy sector and the energy transition, marked by rapid change and significant challenges.

Aurora has brought together the key themes shaping the energy transition into a special end of year report and accompanying podcast – hosted by our Global Research Director, Richard Howard and with contributions from 12 Aurora experts from Aurora’s global network.

Key themes explored are:

1. US policy changes under the Trump administration
   The report delves into the sweeping policy shifts enacted by President Trump’s administration, which have had significant effects on both domestic and international energy markets. Increased trade tariffs, a renewed focus on US energy independence, and the rollback of clean energy incentives have altered investment flows and market dynamics. The analysis explores how these policies have impacted global trade, LNG exports, and the competitiveness of renewables.
2. The AI boom and data centre expansion
   A defining trend of 2025 has been the explosive growth of artificial intelligence and data centre development. Electricity demand from data centres globally now rivals that of a major economy such as Germany, creating both opportunities and challenges for utilities and grid operators. The discussion covers the need for rapid grid expansion, investment in flexible infrastructure, and the implications for renewable energy integration as data centres become increasingly central to power system planning.
3. Grid reliability amidst climate volatility and renewables buildout
   Extreme weather events, ageing infrastructure, and the accelerated deployment of renewables have placed grid reliability at the forefront of concerns. The report and podcast examine major outages and system stress in regions such as Iberia, Australia, and the US, analysing their causes and the responses from system operators and policymakers. It underscores the importance of proactive planning, investment in grid-forming technologies, and the role of flexibility—such as batteries and demand response—in maintaining system stability.
4. Challenges and solutions for renewables integration
   As renewables reach record levels of deployment, new challenges have emerged: negative pricing, grid congestion, and economic curtailment. The report and podcast feature case studies from Europe, Latin America, Japan, and India, illustrating how different markets are addressing these issues through technology, market design, and policy innovation. Solutions discussed include longer duration storage, portfolio optimisation, and reforms to locational signals, all aimed at ensuring the continued success of the energy transition.