How to Make a High Probability Trade

As the market was pulling back, SPX was trading around 39, 65, 3963. I sold a put credit spread where the short strike was about 10 points out of the money at 3955. And then I bought the 3950 for protection that makes it a defined risk spread. So we're kind of probability stacking here. We have our bullish bias from the forecast tool,. We have a morning rally, and then we are combining all these things into a high-probability trade.