The China Argument and Treaty Limits

Humans have shaped the world more than any other species in existence, largely due to our ability to coordinate and work together as a unit – in other words, to govern ourselves. This means that, while human societies are at the center of the many crises we face today, we are also the key to navigating through them safely. But this is only possible if we're able to hold the foundations of our governance together: communication, agency, and remembering our shared humanity. What is the current state of our ability to do this, and what policy mechanisms and agreements are needed to navigate the turbulent decades to come?

In this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by geopolitical risk experts Mark Medish and Chuck Watson to discuss the increasing strain being placed on human governance as a result of escalating conflicts between nations and state leaders. Together, they delve into the intricate foundations of our modern governing structures and why it is critical that we reinforce existing international treaties and agreements in order to avoid the worst outcomes for all of humanity. Mark and Chuck also discuss the history of nuclear arms control – including the upcoming expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) – and how artificial intelligence threatens to disturb the tenuous peace built in the 20th century. Ultimately, they emphasize the need to renew public awareness and education on the importance of governance and the need for our leadership to engage in diplomatic negotiations in an increasingly complex world.

Despite the media's focus on laws, regulations, and technology, why do people and our shared humanity still lay at the center of good governance and decision making? Where are our current leaders failing us, and does the average citizen still hold agency to influence the trajectory of global events? Lastly, what do we risk by abandoning trust in our fellow citizens and nations, and what opportunities are still available to rebuild our confidence in each other?

(Conversation recorded on January 8th, 2026)

About Mark Medish:

Mark Medish has over 30 years of professional experience in policy, law, finance, and strategic communications. Medish served at The White House as a Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director on the National Security Council, as well as at the U.S. Treasury as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs. He also worked in senior positions at the State Department (USAID) and the United Nations (UNDP). Medish is Vice Chair of Project Associates Ltd., a London headquartered strategic consultancy with offices in Europe, the Middle East, East Africa, and the U.S. He is also a founding partner of the Mosaiq Law Group in Washington, D.C., and a co-founder of Keep Our Republic, a non-profit civic education organization promoting democratic governance and rule of law.

His previous business leadership posts include: president of The Messina Group, a boutique strategic communications firm based in Washington, D.C.; president of the international division of Guggenheim Partners, an asset management company headquartered in Chicago; and equity partner at Akin Gump, an international law firm where he led the sovereign advisory practice. He worked as a vice president for studies and senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was a visiting research fellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also a board member of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University and the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna.

About Chuck Watson:

Chuck Watson has had a long career in international development projects as well as military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human-made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attaché to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

Chuck has worked as an advisor to governments for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.

Show Notes and More

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