079: Raoul Pal – The Biggest Financial Experiment the World has Ever Seen, Explained by a Global Macro Investor
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The Importance of Understanding the Business Cycle
If we look at the chart of economic growth GDP of any country in the world or even the world itself it rises and falls. The average length of a business cycle is x number of months or x number of years you can tell that once the business cycle is peaked in the future it is likely to reach a recession point where boom bust. We have excess spending excess speculation excess euphoria excess optimism too much borrowing in good times and in bad times nobody takes enough riskNobody borrows nobody's hiring new workers Nobody's doing all of the things that they should be doing at the bottom of the cycle because it usually means that the bottom ofthe cycle things are only going to get better from here.
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