Complexities of Voter Behavior and the Influence of Cultural Issues

The Speaker drama is over (for now) – but who is Mike Johnson? His ascension is not only further evidence that the January 6 insurrectionists are now fully in charge of the House, but also a manifestation of how much the Republican Party is dominated by the interests and sensibilities of religious reactionaries. Johnson rejects the separation of church and state, he disdains pluralism, and he certainly doesn’t like “democracy.”

We also discuss the role threats of violence played in this whole affair. The MAGA base wanted Jim Jordan – and threatened those who didn’t support him. We talk about the surge of political violence from the Right, violent threats as a form of political communication, and the kind of political culture that has been established on the Right and is constantly being normalized not just by Donald Trump, but also by an inability and/or unwillingness of America’s elected leaders and political institutions to hold the line. Does the fact that some Republicans publicly resisted these threats signal that this is about to change? We are skeptical: After all, even those Republicans who lamented the MAGA threats have not been willing to break with Trump or critically reflect on the escalating demonization of “the Left” that is animating the rise of rightwing violence.

Finally, we are taking a big-picture look at the state of the 2024 presidential race. On the Republican side, Trump’s “legal troubles” have not hurt him – he is not only in a stronger position now than before he was first indicted, but also than at a comparable point in time before the 2016 election. What are the reasons for his hold over the Right, and what does this tell us about the field of Republican “challengers”? On the Democratic side, we discuss what to make of all the polling data that suggests a tough road ahead for Joe Biden – and why the conventional wisdom about the electoral effect of presidential approval rating and perceptions of the economy might not apply. We also discuss the question of Biden’s age: There is a real issue here, as America’s political elite is indeed significantly older than that of any other comparable democracy. But the mainstream media’s fixation on the “Biden so old” trope also signals something else.

Sources and Further Reading:

Annie Karni, “In Johnson, House Republicans Elevate One of Their Staunchest Conservatives,” NYT, October 25, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/us/politics/mike-johnson-house-speaker.html

“They Legitimized the Myth of a Stolen Election — and Reaped the Rewards,” NYT, October 3, 2022 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/us/politics/republican-election-objectors.html

Sarah Posner, “The Christian Legal Army Behind ‘Masterpiece Cakeshop,’ The Nation, November 28, 2017 https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-christian-legal-army-behind-masterpiece-cakeshop/

Jamelle Bouie, “The Apotheosis of Jim Jordan Is a Sight to Behold,” NYT, October 17, 2023 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/opinion/jim-jordan-house-speaker.html

Ron Brownstein, “The Threat to Democracy Is Coming From Inside the U.S. House,” The Atlantic, October 18, 2023 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/10/us-house-democracy-threat-republican-speaker-race/675679/

Aaron Blake, “Threats couldn’t save Jim Jordan. But Trump-era intimidation has had an impact,” WaPo, October 20, 2023 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/20/threats-havent-saved-jordan-trump-era-intimidation-has-had-an-impact/

“Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election,” PRRI, October 25, 2023 https://www.prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/

Nathan P. Kalmoe and Lilliana Mason, “Threats as Political Communication,” Political Communication, October 18, 2023 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10584609.2023.2270539