Exploring Production Limits and Growth Constraints

Tamay Besiroglu is a researcher working on the intersection of economics and AI. He is currently the Associate Director of Epoch AI, a research institute investigating key trends and questions that will shape the trajectory and governance of AI.

You can find links and a transcript at www.hearthisidea.com/episodes/besiroglu

In this episode we talked about open source the risks and benefits of open source AI models. We talk about:

• The argument for explosive growth from ‘increasing returns to scale’
• Does AI need to be able to automate R&D to cause rapid growth?
• Which theories of growth best explain the Industrial Revolution; and what do they predict from AI?
• What happens to human incomes under near-total job automation?
• Are regulations likely to slow down frontier AI progress enough to prevent this? Might AI go the way of nuclear power?
• Will AI hit on resource or power limits before explosive growth? Won't it run out of data first?
• Why aren't academic economists more interested in the prospect of explosive growth, if indeed it is so plausible?

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