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Pascal's Mugging - Where Expected Value Theory Breaks Down
Expected value theory is based on taking the probability of an outcome and multiplying it by its expected value. But if this argument is used for giving your money to a mugger, or looking for future amounts of value, then something has gone bad says Wong. He argues that there's long religious tadition that says you can get infinite amounts of value by a heaven. And so really, the upshot of your taking expected value theoris se expected value theory seriously is to try and insure that you get into as many heavens as possible - according to different religions.