TIP641: Improve Decision Making with Mental Models w/ Clay Finck & Kyle Grieve
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Understanding Market Cycles and Intrinsic Value
This chapter explores the interplay between intrinsic value and stock market prices, focusing on how human psychology influences investor behavior. Featuring insights from Howard Marks, it emphasizes the necessity of grasping these concepts to make informed decisions during market fluctuations.
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve and Clay Finck continue their conversation on Investing: The Last Liberal Art by Robert Hagstrom. We discuss details on why using the right explanation for a business is so important to a good investment thesis, simple ways to improve your reading to get more out of the books and content that you consume, how to use simple mathematical concepts to improve your decision making in real-time, how to understand better System I and System II thinking and how it directly applies to investing, some of the latest mental models Kyle has learned from interviewing recent guests, and a whole lot more!
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
03:34 - How to use the proper explanations in your analysis to determine the right comparable best.
06:18 - Why Tesla is so misunderstood.
10:33 - Why the economics of Dino Polska make it an invalid comparison to other grocers.
12:02 - The power of narratives in investing and how we can guard ourselves from getting overly optimistic.
17:43 - How to optimize reading for learning.
40:18 - How to use Bayes theorem to tip odds in your favour and change your position sizing.
45:45 - Why value and prices become disconnected, and how human psychology plays into this.
50:20 - Why intuition (system I thinking) is so difficult to rely on in the stock market.
01:09:22 - How to make thinking in mental models a habit.
01:14:59 - Some of the latest mental models Kyle has learned from interviewing some of his latest guests.
And so much more!
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
- Buy Investing: The Last Liberal Art here.
- Buy The Great Mental Models here.
- Learn more about Mental Models here.
- Buy Poor Charlie’s Almanck here.
- Buy More Than You Know here
- Follow Clay on Twitter and LinkedIn.
- Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn
- Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here.
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