2min chapter

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas cover image

86 | Martin Rees on Threats to Humanity, Prospects for Posthumanity, and Life in the Universe

Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas

CHAPTER

The Importance of Quantifying Events Probability

I'm morbidly fascinated by solar flares which are certainly a natural phenomenon that has happened many times. I met a lawyer who had worked on a commission where they thought about this and he was very concerned about the idea that once every thousand years there's a solar flare that would be big enough to wipe out the entire electrical grid here on Earth. And so it's that kind of a combination of a naturally occurring thing and the vulnerability that we have invented for it. But you're right in saying that there are some natural phenomena whose consequence is greater now because we depend on electricity more. The consequence of an earthquake in Tokyo is more now and would have been 300 years ago because of the number of

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