There is about an 80 % probability that an ilcof inversion is followed by a recession. But the inversion in and of itself not cause ha reception, and it does not give a good sense of te timing fo recession. What would cause our recession? So what we see right now in the economy is still on a very strong footing. There are more job openings than people looking for employment. Companies are growing earnings. And most importantly, household and copper balance shets are quite strong.

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