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Rob Wiblin on self-improvement and research ethics
80,000 Hours Podcast
How to Forecast Cryptocurrency Markets
The betting markets are generally a pretty reliable source to give you just an overall picture. Despite their weaknesses they're usually as good or better than any other source of forecasting that we can get and the information they produce is really a very valuable public good sometimes because everyone can see the pricesEveryone can see the probabilities that they imply and then can use that to help guide their guide their decisions so despite all my criticisms here whenever I'm interested in forecasting some topic where I know that people are engaging in these betting markets on that topic that's almost always the first source for me.
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