John Roberts on Macroeconomic Modeling at the Fed, Makeup Policy, and the Future of FAIT
Macro Musings with David Beckworth
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Is the Fed Forecasting a Recession?
In the December FOMC, it shows unemployment going up quite a bit. And then inflation kind of is still slowly coming down. So is the Fed forecasting a recession? How do I understand that increase in unemployment as the inflation rate slowly comes down? Right. It is interesting because sometimes you do wonder what exactly is the Fed's saying or signaling by this SEP. Oh, absolutely. The 4.5% is a reasonable guess, maybe a little on the low side, but a reasonable guess of what the natural rate of unemployment might be right now.
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