How Useful Is Utility?

He begins with the claim that games of chance make it easy to explain the theory of rational choice. He then goes on to use an example, tries to summon up an example from real life that is completely divorced from the casino. That has nothing to do with providing probabilities. There is no probability of milk in the fridge. And if you don't know, then the best option is to assume it isn't there. These are the real, live, actual explanations that people conjure in their mind. You are conjecturing explanations and ruling out the worst ones - making a decision based upon your best explanation.