Cem Karsan: Fed is Making Huge Policy Error
Coin Stories
We're Going to Have a Recession, Right?
I think we're going to go through a period of real earnings recessions, right? That doesn't mean GDP is going to be poor. We've never had a period where we've had a valuation bubble, right? At the same time that we have inflation and the Fed is trying to deal with both at the same time. So yes, we are going to get a recession. But I think, you know, as long as they handle this the right way, we'll have much stronger demand push in the economy.
Cem is the Founder and Senior Managing Partner of KAI Volatility Advisors. He is responsible for firm-wide management, as well as its Head of Research and Risk Management. Cem triple majored in Economics, Policy Studies and English at Rice University and holds an MBA from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
Follow Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant
Learn more about his company https://www.kaivolatility.com/
IN THIS EPISODE: 0:00 Swan Bitcoin promo 1:18 Born in London, lived in Turkey, grew up in Houston and Oklahoma 2:55 Family's immigration stories 4:22 Grandfather fled Bulgaria 6:16 Early interest in social sciences, parents were engineers 7:47 Founding Kai Volatility Advisors 10:23 Equity volatility 12:27 Macroeconomic analysis, dramatic inequality, distrust of system 21:38 Fixing inflationary problem, Federal Reserve chairs before Paul Volcker 31:09 Control inflation with real supply-side responses 34:43 Equality and fairness relative to growth 38:14 Muddling through a recession like in the 70's 40:35 Why the timing was right for Volcker's moves in the 80's 41:45 What is Jay Powell going to do? 42:21 iTrustCapital promo 43:08 Bitcoin Amsterdam and Bitcoin 2023 promo 44:13 Fold app promo 44:42 Rebalancing takes time, no shortcuts 48:41 Decoupling the US dollar from the gold standard in 1971 52:05 Dollar is threatened, countries de-dollarizing; fairness is naive 55:08 Are Bitcoiners naive? 56:00 First discovering Bitcoin in 2009/2010 58:40 Money is power; future of BTC 1:02:24 Utopia vs. innate desire to compete 1:06:51 "I think rates are going to go a lot higher" in next 6-12 months 1:14:18 Collapse in market will trigger a pivot 1:15:10 "Market is not the economy. Economy is not the market." 1:17:32 Opportunity in this environment 1:19:30 Investing in anything close to government: infrastructure 1:23:19 UBI: Universal Basic Income 1:25:15 Sticky double-digit inflation in the next 5 years 1:27:38 Fed pivot affecting tech stocks 1:29:07 Crises are good because they rebalance things and drive future growth
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OTHER RESOURCES - Natalie's website https://talkingbitcoin.com/ - Kai Volatility Advisors https://www.kaivolatility.com/ - Cem on Twitter https://twitter.com/jam_croissant ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories BTC wallet bc1ql8dqjp46s4eq9k3lxt0lxzh6f2wcu35cl6944d ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ ⏤ FOLLOW NATALIE ON SOCIAL MEDIA
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